Cubs Sign Gathright

Clearly the solution to our left-handed, power-hitting, right-fielder!! NOT.

Not to worry Cub fans, Joey Gathright is not going to be the everyday right-fielder. Originally drafted by the Devil Rays in 2001, Gathright was traded to the Royals in 2006. His career triple slash numbers are AWFUL. A .263/.328/.304 line does not do much to excite me. His career obp of .328 is pretty bad, but the fact that it .24 pts above his slugging % is embarrassing! At least he can jump over cars. The one thing Gathright will offer off the bench is speed. If ever given 600 plate appearances, (which better never happen) he would likely steal 50+ bases.

I do not see any value in Joey Gathright that the Cubs do not already have with Felix Pie. Pie too can play all 3 outfield spots and has plenty of speed. Unfortunately, Gathright's ability to jump over cars will not come in to much handy on the field. This move once again reminds us of Lou's hatred of Pie. I still believe if given a full season with consistent playing time, he would be an asset to this organization. That is not going to happen and now it looks like the Cubs are going to trade someone with more upsides than Gathright for next to nothing because of the way they handled him. What a waste of a signing.

Latest on Peavy

There have been some crazy rumors thrown out there the past 24 hrs relating to Peavy. One name that has come up a bit was Mark Derosa. In this incredibly unlikely scenario, Deros would go to the Phillies and both the Phils and Cubs would send prospects to the Padres for Peavy.

As soon as I saw this rumor I thought all hope (or despair) for this trade to happen was lost. There is no way Derosa going to get traded. He is too valuable as a player who can play 4 positions and making $ 4 mil next year to do it. This would then leave the Cubs with holes at both 2nd base and right-field. Too many things would need to go right in order for this to happen. Carrie Muskat, who writes for cubs.com reiterated that Derosa is not going anywhere.

Word is that the deal is in the Cubs hands at this point. There is a basic framework in place and it now appears that Sean Marshall would not depart, but Marquis would go to the Padres and the Cubs would eat a portion of his salary. This makes me a little happier, as I am a big fan of Sean Marshall.

With each passing second without confirmation that a deal has been agreed upon, it seems less likely that Hendry is going to pull the trigger.

Acquiring Peavy does not solve the Cubs problem of a right-fielder, a first-baseman who's value is plummeting each day and having starting pitchers who cannot stay healthy!

For all the Peavy rumors throughout the day go here.

K-Rod sign with Mets, CC to the Yanks

Yesterday the Mets signed Fransisco Rodriguez, who set the major league single-season saves record to a 3 yr $37 million deal. There is a $14 mil option for a 4th year based on performance goals.

I am one of many people that feel closers are overpaid. J.C. Bradbury estimated K-Rod's value at about $6 mil per year over the next 3 seasons. This number is so low, because closers, like the rest of relievers see a very small percentage of batters. Not every good reliever can be a good closer. Just look at LaTroy Hawkins. With that said, someone who pitches 70 innings per year is never worth $13 million per season.

The Mets needed bullpen help. The only real asset they had was Billy Wagner, but he will be out next season after Tommy-John surgery. Rodriguez will be a great asset to that pen, which is probably what caused them to justify over-paying for him.

My concerns with K-Rod are his health. Anyone who has ever watching him pitch should be concerned as well. K-Rod's mechanics are as violent as anyone's and they are appearing to take their toll. 92 mph is about as high as it gets on the radar gun these days for K-Rod and that led to a significant drop in his strikeout rate this last season. These issues scream major arm problems and I am waiting for that arm to fall off.

Odd's are K-Rod's arm will not fall off for another couple years and he will continue getting way too much attention, when he is not even the best closer. K-Rod will not doubt be an asset to the Mets, the question is just for how long. At least the Mets did not pony up the 5 yr $75 mil that people were projecting a little over a month ago.

On to C.C.

This one has not been finalized yet, but it is essentially done and should be finished shortly. The Yankees will have signed Sabathia for 7/$160. Word is that the deal includes an opt-out clause for C.C. after 4 years. This would mean he could then again make another market splash with a 7 year deal beginning at age 31, if he performs well enough the first few season with the Yankees.

I am really surprised the initial offer of 6yr/$140 was not enough to sway C.C. to the Bronx. That offer was $40 million more than the Brewers. The Angels were in the mix and some reports said the Red Sox were as well. There is a good chance the Red Sox talked briefly to him in an attempt to get him away from the Yanks. No one really knows if the Angels made a formal offer or not, but all reports were that they could not match the Yankees $140 mil.

For a while it was clear that C.C. wanted to stay on the West coast and had a preference for the National League. Was this what forced the Yankees to add another year and $20 million to his contract? If so then C.C. must really have not wanted to play out East, but you can always count on a Boras client to go to the highest bidder.

He certainly did not come cheap, but if any pitcher is worth that kind of money it is C.C. Sabathia. Overall, this is a good deal for the Yanks and C.C. will be a tremendous asset on the mound for years to come.

Blagojevich Affected Sale of Cubs?

Many of you have heard by now that Rod Blagojevich, the governor of Illinois was indicted on two different corruption charges. The first was him attempting to sell the vacancy left by Barack Obama in the senate to the highest bidder. The other charge was that Blagojevich was attempting to use the Cubs as leverage to get two members of the Chicago Tribune editorial board fired.

According to the federal complaint, Blagojevich was trying to use the Illinois Finance Authority (IFA), a state agency that can provide financing for real estate deals, and grants of other state funds to persuade Tribune Company, the owner of the Cubs, to end its editorial campaign for the governor's impeachment. The scheme remained in operation as recently as Dec. 5.

The Cubs wanted and would probably need IFA financing to make major renovations which seem likely to be coming upon the sale of the team.

Is it possible Blagojevich allegedly withholding financing to the Cubs has slowed up the process? Yes. Do I think that really was the cause? No. The current state of the economy is most likely responsible. It certainly a little scary to think that a governor could be responsible for something like this.

Just another reason for me to hate Rod Blagojevich

Cub Rumors From Winter Meetings

Today marks the first day of baseball's winter meetings. This year they are being held in Las Vegas. The week of winter meetings is probably my favorite of the year. Here are some Cub related rumors that have been going (everything can be found at mlbtraderumors.com).

- Jeremy Hermida is high on the Cubs list for the right-field position. I touched on the subject of him being in a Cub uniform a few weeks back and would be very happy to see him acquired.
- For the second time in as many days, the Cubs have been linked to free agent outfielder Milton Bradley. Bradley has a lot of upside with the bat and put up a monster year in Texas. My concerns with him are his health (averaged lass than 100 games per season the past 4 years) and his capability of handling right-field. Bradley has put up defensive numbers that suggest he would not be a liability out there, but he has not played right-field with any consistency since 2006. He also does have the greatest name ever.
- It looks like Adam Dunn is higher on the Cub list than both Abreu and Ibanez. I believe Abreu should be higher than Dunn. Abreu can handle right field and although will not provide 40 hrs, he will bring in a great obp and around 20 steals and hrs. Dunn, as I have mentioned before, would be incompetent in right-field. I do love his bat and would not hate the acquisition if Abreu and Hermida no longer become options.
- Nobody wants anything to do with Jason Marquis :(

Now for the latest on Peavy

- The Cubs did not talk to the Padres about Peavy yesterday, but are expected to some point today
- Hendry is placing a priority on dumping Marquis and getting a right-fielder before dealing for Peavy. Nice to hear that, the Cubs already have a strong rotation and nobody to play right-field, the priority should be obvious.
- Vitters, Marshall, Hart, Cedeno for Peavy is the rumored deal. It would be nice to get rid of Cedeno and Hart, but I feel the organization undervalues Sean Marshall tremendously. He is a great swing-man on a team that is going to need one with the arm problems of Zambrano, Harden and Peavy.

There will probably another post today going more in detail on big subjects. Stay tuned.

Hall of Fame Time

There are 23 names on this year's ballot. You can see the full list here. I am going to just discuss the big and controversial names on that list.

First off, Ricky Henderson is on the ballot for the first time this year and will undoubtedly get in. Henderson was probably the best lead-off hitter baseball has ever seen, with over 1400 stolen bases and a career obp of .401. On top of that, he showed some solid pop in his bat, hitting nearly 300 home runs for his career. Congrats to Ricky Henderson.

Jim Rice finished with 72.2% of the vote last year, just shy of the 75% needed to receive baseball immortality. From 77-79, Rice put up monster numbers and won the AL MVP in 1978. After those 3 seasons, there is not a whole lot to be impressed with. He was not much more than an above-average regular without great defense, and as a left-fielder, that is just not good enough to get in. There is a good chance he will this year, but I would vote against it.

Here is one that many people have a strong opinion on; Mark McGwire. The steroid era has tarnished the legacy of many players, and Big Mac is at the front of that list. There is no doubt that without the steroids issues, McGwire is easily in the hall. The argument for him is that nothing has been proven and thus it should not be enough to keep him out. This makes sense, but I do not buy it. I am convinced the McGwire used steroids and from what I recall of the congressional hearing a few years back was that he did not exactly deny using them. By allowing McGwire in the hall, I see some double-standard here. Pete Rose was the all-time hits leader and would be in the Hall of Fame if he did not bet on baseball. I am not by any means excusing what Rose did, but there was never any evidence of him gambling on games while he was a player. He only did it when he was managing and thus cannot be a Hall of Fame player? I have a problem with that. The gambling that Rose did, while very much illegal, did not affect his performance on the field. McGwire's alleged steroid use would have affected his statistics. He should not be in the Hall of Fame.

Bert Blyleven is a favorite among sabermetric fans. I tend to agree with much of sabermetrics, but I am not buying that Blyleven should be in the hall. Throughout his 22 year career, Blyleven racked up nearly 5000 ip (4970). That is a huge number, and something that should be respected. My issue with Bert is that he was not a dominant pitcher. He never won a Cy Young Award and only went to 2 All-Star games throughout his career. Yes, both of those evaluating systems are flawed, but on the whole pretty decent and a Hall of Fame player should have more impressive credentials in those areas. Blyleven was a valuable, above-average pitcher but is not quite good enough to be in the hall.

There are a few other names I could talk about, like Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, but those were the most important ones I wanted to get to. Anyone else think it is funny that Dan Plesac is on the ballot? The inductees will be announced on Monday.

Cubs Love Them Some Adam Dunn?

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Cubs would love Adam Dunn in their lineup, but are concerned about his defense.

Hendry should be a little more concerned with Dunn's defense. Playing mostly left-field throughout his career, Dunn has been one of the worst defenders in baseball. From 2006-2008, he 3rd worst defensive left-fielder in all of baseball with a -58 (cost an estimated 58 over the 3 seasons).

Ok, so Dunn is really bad in left-field. Many will tell you that left is the easiest outfield position to play, and right-field is arguably the most difficult outfield position to man. Obviously, with Soriano in left, Dunn is going to be expected to play right. Given his horrendous defensive stats in left, I see it as completely unrealistic for Dunn to play a bearable right-field. Signing him to play right-field would not help this team.

Despite what I was just saying, I actually like Adam Dunn quite a bit. Thus, I would like to see Hendry get creative and explore the option of dishing Lee for a right-fielder and looking in to have Adam Dunn play first-base. This is definitely a stretch, especially considering Lee has a no-trade clause. Nonetheless, it is something to think about.

Dunn would not be great defensively at first, but odds are the liability that his is would be minimized by having him play a less demanding position. Dunn has done nothing but rake when he plays in Wrigley Field and would be a tremendous asset to the middle of the Cub lineup.

Breaking Down the Vazquez Deal

The deal will likely not be finalized until some point today, but it appears to be pending physicals at this point. There have been some conflicting reports over the players involved, but the deal is expected to be...

Braves Acquire:

Javier Vazquez, rhp
Boone Logan

White Sox Acquire:

Brent Lillibridge, ss
Tyler Flowers, c
Jon Gilmore, 3b
Santos Rodriguez, lhp

Vazquez had a very mediocre year in 2008. With 2 years and $23 million left on his deal, ($11.5 per season) Vazquez is probably over-paid. He is not over-paid to the point where this hurts the Braves, however. As it stood before this trade, Jair Jurrjens, the 22 yr old rhp was going to be leading the staff. He showed some promise, but his peripherals indicate that his era is likely to regress next season. Jurrjens will likely not be more than a 3 starter.

Although he is past his prime, and not going to be a true ace, Vazquez is a substantial improvement to this rotation. He has thrown over 200 ip in 8 of his last 9 season, while throwing 198 in the other one. Some improvement in era can be expected with a move to the NL and a less hitter-friendly park. If Vazquez can throw 400 innings with and era around 4.50 the next two seasons, then the Braves made out well.

Boone Logan was more or less a throw in because the Braves could use a lefty in the pen. Despite a poor 2008 campaign, Logan should rebound some due to the solid 3/1 K/BB rate.

Now for the prospects going the Sox way...

Tyler Flowers- Currently a very offensive-minded catcher, who put up very solid numbers at the plate this past season. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked him 8th on his Atlanta top 11 prospect list. He is too big and just not talented enough to stay behind the plate. With that said, moving to the AL will be good for his career, as he could end up being a DH. I see his bat making him and above-average regular, but do not expect him in the bigs until mid-2010.

Brent Lillibridge- I have been a pretty big fan of his the past two years. His 2008 campaign was not impressive, but it is not time to give up on him. Baseball America ranked him #6 on the Braves top 10 prospect list last year. He is capable of being a lead-off hitter that hits .280-.300 with a solid obp. Lillibridge is also a pretty solid ss (which is moot with the cuban missile taking that spot) and capable of stealing 40+ bases per season. He does need to work on hitting for more contact instead of power. If Lillibridge figures that out, he should be a nice complimentary player.

Jon Gilmore- Scouting reports on Gilmore were that he has a lot of power potential, but thus far has not lived up to expectations. He did however, hit for an impressive .337 avg in the Appalachian league this season. Some potential, but a long way to go. I am bearish on him.

Santos Rodriguez- A left-handed closer, with a very projectable frame (6'5", 180 lbs.). As he puts on some weight, expect Rodriguez currently 93 mph fastball to reach the mid 90's. Santos is probably 3+ years away, but his a lot of potential out of the pen.

I see this as a win win trade. The Braves probably over-paid for Vazquez, but getting another consistent arm was necessary to take pressure off the young Jurrjens. The White Sox shed some salary, and made some nice improvements to a borderline pathetic farm-system. Most of the talent is 2 years away, with Lillibridge being just about major-league ready, but this should help them long term.

Cubs Top 20 Prospects

John Sickels of Minor League ball put up his preliminary rankings for the Cubs top 20 prospects on his site. You can see what the comments he made for each player and the system as a whole here. The top 20 looks like this....

1) Josh Vitters, 3B

2) Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3) Ryan Flaherty, SS

4) Andrew Cashner, RHP

5) Hak-Ju Lee, SS

6) Jay Jackson, RHP,

7) Tyler Colvin, OF

8) Welington Castillo, C

9) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

10) Aaron Shafer, RHP

11) Starlin Castro, SS

12) Junior Lake, SS.

13) Dan McDaniel, RHP

14) Micah Hoffpauir

15) Esmailin Caridad, RHP

16) Don Veal, LHP

17) Josh Kroeger, OF

18) Tony Thomas, 2B

19) Chris Carpenter, RHP

20) Mitch Atkins, RHP

Vitters was the no. 3 overall pick in the 2007 draft, and I am a big fan. Reminds me a lot of Aramis Ramirez in the sense that he is a contact hitter with above-average power. Not great plate discipline, but decent enough and will not strike out a ton. I would have put Flaherty lower. Word is that he will not be able to stick at ss, and although he has a decent bat, it does not project as much above-average at a corner position. Cashner was the Cubs first pick in this years draft, which is frustrating because I hate the idea of drafting relievers with your first couple picks. Why draft them when so many relievers are guys who just were not capable of starting, or like Carlos Marmol who would not make it as a catcher, but he had an electric arm, so they put him on the mound. With all that said, Cashner could be a very good reliever with an above-average fastball and a nasty slider.

The Cubs have made quite a few signings from the Pacific Rim the past few seasons. Hak-Ju-Lee and Dae-Eun-Rhee are the two biggest names right now. Lee seemed to be ranked pretty high considering he has not played in the minors at all. The report on him is that he is outstanding defensively at ss, and a strong contact hitter. Definitely a name to keep an eye on next year. Rhee was flashing 3 above-average pitches in the MWL this year before he had to get Tommy John surgery. He is expected to be back in June or July next season and has a lot of upside.

Colvin was the Cubs first pick in the 2006 draft, and the first one by the new scouting director, Tim Wilken. I have hated this pick from day 1, and unfortunately Colvin has proved me right. He hit .256/.312/.424 this season in AA Tennessee. I would have put him lower than 7.

It was nice to see Sickels put Jay Jackson pretty high. He had a great debut, putting up a nearly 6/1 K/BB rate. Jackson has a solid fastball and a very good curveball, and most importantly, good command of both of those pitches. He is another name to keep an eye on next year.

Overall, the Cubs system is very weak right now. Tim Wilken and Oneri Fleita (Director of player development) appear to be largely at fault for that. The only 1st round pick that I liked was Josh Vitters, and the other two have been struggling quite a bit. Then There are guys like Donald Veal, and Mark Pawelek who looked like great picks in the 2005 draft. Both lefties with very high ceilings, Pawelek the 1st round pick, and Veal the 2nd round pick. Their skills have only digressed since they have been in the Cubs system and people like Fleita should be taking some blame there.

There are some positives in the system, unfortunately most of it is in the lower minors and need some time to develop. Vitters, Rhee, Lee and Jackson are the 4 names to keep a good eye on next season. Castillo and Shafer have some solid potential as well.

Deadline Day

Today is the last day for the Cubs to offer arbitration to Bob Howry or Kerry Wood. They have until 11 pm CDT to do so.

Howry and Wood are both Type A free agents, which means that if the Cubs offer arbitration to them and they decline and sign with another team, then the Cubs will receive a compensation pick in the 2009 draft. If the team that signs him picks anywhere between 1-15, the Cubs would get a pick at the end of the first round. If the team that signs them picks between 16-30, the Cubs would receive their first round pick.

Reports say the Cubs will not be offering arbitration to Bob Howry, which makes sense considering Howry would be likely to accept. As much as I would like that compensation pick, I really do not want to see Howry in a Cub uniform any longer.

That same article said the Cubs are only going to offer arbitration to Wood if he is likely to decline.

I would like to see Wood offered arbitration. If he accepts, then you have another valuable reliever in your possession for another year, and if he declines you get a compensation pick in the draft. This seems like a no-brainer to me, but Hendry has already said the team is parting ways with Wood.

Would he accept arbitration? I really do not have a great idea, but put a gun to my head and I say yes, mainly because of the comments from Wood saying he would have taken a 1 year deal to stay with the team.