White Sox Sign Dayan Viciedo

Kenny Williams has been working hard to get this deal done and it was finally completed a few days ago. Viciedo,19, is a Cuban defector who has incredible power potential. Some scouts say he should be able to hit 40 hr's per year. Unlike Alexei Ramirez, Viciedo is not likely major-league ready. He is only 19 and will likely get a years worth of seasoning in the minors. Expect him to start in AA Birmingham and not be a contributor to the big club until mid-2010.

Some appear to see him on a faster track than that, and although odds are very slim that he ends up on the opening day roster, he could be contributing by June. It really is too early to tell though, considering he has not played one inning in the states. Had the deal been completed sooner, we would have gotten to see Viciedo play in the Arizona Fall League. Since that did not happen, he will need to make a very profound impression on Ozzie Guillen in spring training.

Ramirez and Viciedo are very different players, but are likely to man the left side of the infield for the White Sox for years to come. Viciedo is a power hitter first. Baseball America compared him to Giants first-base prospect Angel Villalona, who has incredible raw power (but yet to do much in the minors). The article points out that he has to improve his defense at third-base and will have to move over to first-base soon if he does not improve there.

The signing of the Cuban Missile (Alexei Ramirez) was outstanding last year. It was virtually a no risk move considering they are paying him $4.75 million over 4 years. Viciedo did not come at that price. He signed for somewhere between $10-11 million over the next 4 seasons. I really do not like to see an unproven 19 year old signing for that kind of money. The White Sox certainly over-payed for him, and I would not to cough up that kind of money when a comparable prospect Angel Villalona received a signing bonus of $2.1 million.

Kenny Williams remains a complete enigma to me. It is nice to see him looking towards young players with high upside as opposed to trading for Carl Everrett for the 3rd time. I will be keeping a close eye on Viciedo this upcoming season.

Latest on Cuban, Ownership, Dempster and the Incompetence of Christ DeLuca

Many of you have heard by now that Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and bidding for ownership of the Cubs, is being investigated by the SEC for and insider trading incident that took place 4 years ago. This is just a civil suit, so Cuban will not face any jail time, just financial penalties. Does this hurt his chance at being Cubs owner? Probably, a little bit. The certainly hurts the reputation of a man who never had a great one in the first place. Major League Baseball and its owners will not want to get involved with someone who is currently being investigated.

A week before the insider trading situation became public knowledge, Chris DeLuca of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote an article explaining why there was no chance that Cuban would be the next owner of the Cubs.

"Global financial crisis or not, baseball's old guard plans to stand firm against letting Cuban into the club. ''There's no way Bud and the owners are going to let that happen,'' a Major League Baseball source said this week. ''Zero chance.''

That might make some sense if there was any actual new information presented. There was nothing new in this article suggesting that Cuban cannot be owner of the team. Assuming the previously stated information was true, than fan-favorite Mavericks owner never would have had a shot at buying this team in the first place. On top of this DeLuca suggests John Canning is the favorite to buy the team...

"All of this likely will put the group headed by John Canning Jr. -- Selig's personal favorite -- back as the front-runner."

Forget the fact Canning was eliminated from the bidding after his initial bid did not reach the minimum of $1 billion. Call me crazy, but I do not see how a guy who has already been eliminated from bidding being the front-runner.

There is probably some way Canning could get back in to the bidding, but calling him the front-runner is ridiculous.

I still have a difficult time believing Cuban will not be the owner if he impresses the owners with an offer. Cuban was reportedly the highest bidder at $1.3 billion. Accepting Cuban as the highest bidder improves the value of the other 29 teams. If I were to make a prediction i would say the Ricketts family is the front-runner.

I am not done with Chris DeLuca....

DeLuca had a Cy Young vote and was the only person to not put Tim Lincecum on the ballot. Really Chris? Are you too dumb to realize that Lincecum was not one of the top 3 pitchers in the NL this year?

"It's funny because toward the end of the season, in early September, I was thinking Lincecum would be in my top two," De Luca said. "I thought Webb's victories (22) stood out to me more than anything, and Lincecum didn't have the victories. Twenty victories was a big deal. We had a stretch there where no one was hitting 20."

Well I suppose I cannot argue with that logic, except for the fact that wins mean next to nothing when determining the quality of a pitcher! Webb is a good pitcher who had a good season, but Lincecum was sooo much more dominant and everyone but you realized he was at worst the #3 pitcher in the NL. Ok, DeLuca rant over....

On to Dempster....I wanted to make a correction on the contract. It is not a straight up 4 year deal. It is 3 years with a player option for $14 million for a 4th. He gets a $4 mil signing bonus and will make $8, $12.5, and $13.5 million over the next three seasons.

There is little to no chance that he would turn down $14 million at age 35, but I maintain this was still the right move for the Cubs. He certainly did not come cheap, but they did not really over pay for him either.

Dempster is Back

Its official. There was a lot of talk this morning a deal was close. The deal is 4 yrs $52 million. This is a very solid deal for the Cubs. Early on, some were saying Demp was expecting a 5 year deal, which would be nuts. Ideally this was only a 3 year deal, but in this day in age, that is fairly unrealistic.

He may never put up a sub-3 era again, but if Dempster puts up 4 years with 180-200 ip and an era in the 3.5 or a little higher range, this was a very good deal.

But...But...He's Like 80

There has been some talk beginning last Friday on the possibility of Randy Johnson becoming a Cub. My initial reaction was the title of this post. After thinking about it a little more, I must say, it does not seem like a bad idea.

Johnson, 45 (not 80), has put up insane numbers against the Cubs throughout his career. He is 13-0 in 14 starts with some ridiculous era. Its fair to say adding him adds 1 win to the team simply because they do not have to face him. Although he is getting old and having some arm problems, Johnson still threw over 180 innings last year with a sub 4 era. Assuming the Cubs re-sign Dempster that leaves the Cubs with a rotation of...

Zambrano
Dempster
Harden
Lilly
Marquis
Johnson

Ok, thats 6, which means Marquis must go. The argument of keeping Marquis around because you cannot count on Johnson and even Harden is a fair one, but Marshall will be around and makes for a better and cheaper fill in than Marquis.

I do not like the idea of Randy Johnson being the guy the Cubs turn to in the slight chance that Dempster goes elsewhere. That is when the Cubs continue pursuit of Jake Peavy. If Johnson is acquired to add another arm from the left side and not expected to make 35 starts then I am all in.

Right Field Situation

It is clear at this point that Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome are going to be platooned in center-field. This leaves an open spot in right. Who should they get?

Right-handed hitters need not apply

Brian Giles- I get incredibly excited thinking this is even a possibility. Giles, despite being 37 opening day next season, would still be a tremendous asset to the Cubs lineup and outfield. He hit .306/.398/.456 last season. That is in .854 OPS in a park that suppresses runs by20%. It would be no surprise to see those numbers increase in a hitter friendly Wrigley Field. On top of the very impressive offensive numbers, Giles was rated the #2 right-fielder in all of baseball this year with a +20 rating according to the Fielding Bible. Giles is only making $9 million this year, and his production is deserving about $17-18 mil. Hendry should not hang up his phone with Towers until he has a deal. The problem is that the Padres are not complete bafoons and are aware of Giles value, thus making it very difficult to happen.

Jeremy Hermida- This is a more realistic option, which is surprising considering he is 25 and still has all-star upside. Hermida has been hampered with nagging injuries throughout his short career. In 2007 he put up a .296/.369/.501 line. Very solid for a 23 year old hitter. Hermida struggled a bit this past season, but his health is improving as he reached a career high in AB's with 502. I would be willing to bet he bounces back and puts up numbers closer to those he put up in 2007 and that made him the #4 prospect in baseball not even 3 years ago. The Marlins are listening to offers for Hermida and the Cubs and Rays are listed as the two suitors. Unfortunately, the Rays have more to offer from their deep farm system. The Cubs still have a very good shot at getting Hermida and I would really like to see him in a Cub uniform next year.
Bobby Abreu- There does not appear to be much interest on the Cubs end here, but Abreu could be a good fit. He continues to put up solid numbers as he hit .296/.371/.471 this past season. Abreu also brings some speed on the base paths. Word is that Abreu wants to re-sign with the Yankees, but also wants a 3 year deal. If the Yanks do not lock him up, it would make a lot of sense for the Cubs to go after him

Raul Ibanez- Unlike the first three names, the next two I really do not want, but there has been some talk about them. Hendry seems to be a big fan of Ibanez, as he has been talked about as an option for the Cubs the past few off seasons. Ibanez is somewhat of an enigma to me. I though he was 35 for the past 10 years (don't ask). He has put up pretty solid numbers throughout his career with a .286/.346/.479 line. His numbers the past 3 seasons have actually been a little above his career averages. My issue is that Ibanez is going to turn 37 during the 2009 season and is over-due for a regression in the stat line. This would not be awful if Ibanez provided some defensive value, but he does not. Fielding Bible ranked him as the 2nd worst defensive left-fielder in baseball. It is no secret that right-field is a more difficult position to field than left, and he would be a tremendous liability out there. Please Hendry, do not do this!

Brian Roberts- I am aware Roberts is not an outfielder, but rather a second-baseman. Acquiring Roberts would likely mean Derosa moves to right-field. If we hear nothing but Roberts rumors this off season I will be furious. Like last year, I still think this is a redundant move. Derosa is very solid with the bat and just put up a career year. Although he is versatile in the field, Derosa cannot play right-field every day. He is fine as a fill in, but would hurt the team defensively if he is trotting out to right-field every day.

questions? comments? concerns?

Gregg In Wood Out

The Cubs made a move in attempt to better the bullpen. This seems like a very odd trade and definitely not something any of us saw coming. Kevin Gregg spent the last two seasons as the Florida Marlins closer, saving a total of 61 games throughout that time. Despite the respectable 3.41 era this past season, Gregg struggled. He had a few nagging injuries and had surgery on his knee not too long ago. His walk rate is very alarming, and has only gone up the last two seasons. Gregg needs to get the walks under control, if he can keep the walk rate between 3.5 and 4 per 9 ip, he should be an asset to this bullpen.

In exchange for Gregg, the Cubs gave up Jose Ceda, 21, one of the better prospects in a very thin Cubs minor league system. I am a pretty big fan of Ceda. He has tremendous upside as a reliever, with a fastball that sits in the 96+ range and a slider that ranks as a 65 on the 20-80 scout scale. He has the potential to be Carlos Marmol good as a closer in a couple years. With that said, there is an IF there. Ceda is pretty good and has a lot of upside, but is not ready to contribute April 1, 2009, thus making him expendable.

The biggest news coming from this trade has nothing to do with the two players actually traded. Kerry Wood is not going to be in a Cub next season. As soon as the trade broke, many were saying this meant Wood was not going to be back. I did not believe it, feeling Gregg was acquired to replace the useless Bob Howry. It turns out I was wrong as Jim Hendry explained the situation during a conference call.

"We felt it was time Kerry goes out and does what is best for him and his family and get a huge multiyear deal, if possible," Hendry said. "This is really the right thing to do. We’ve had some really honest conversations in the last week. We don’t have to get into how much I think of him, but at the same time I don’t think we could do for him right now what he deserves and what I think he’ll get going elsewhere."

The positive coming from this is that the Cubs will likely save around $6 million next season. Expect that money to go towards Ryan Dempster and/or a left-handed hitter of some kind.

This really is a sad day for Cub fans. Kerry Wood may never have lived up to the expectations people had for him after the incredible 20 strikeout performance ten years ago, but he was loyal to this organization for 14 professional seasons. Last year, he came back for a 1 year deal when he could have gotten more money on the open market. Kerry Wood is a true class act and I will certainly miss watching him (and his gorgeous wife) in a Cub uniform. He deserves nothing but the best and thats exactly what I wish him on his future endeavors.

Breaking Down the Holliday Trade

Now that it is offical, lets break it down. A lot of us thought Matt Holliday would not be wearing a Rockies uniform this year, but did not see him as an Oakland A.

A's Acquire:

Matt Holliday, of

Rockies Acquire:

Carlos Gonzalez, of
Greg Smith, rhp
Huston Street, rhp

If Oakland cared in the least about winning a baseball game this season, they needed to improve their offense. This is a huge step forward for that lineup. I would imagine there will be some concern of an offensive drop-off for Holliday considering he will be leaving the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Some regression is likely, but not enough to make Holliday not worth trading for. In 2008 Holliday hit .308/.405/.486 on the road. Although that is a .100 difference in OPS (.892 road, .997 home) he is still going to put up well above average offensive numbers as an Athletic.

Holliday's offense may be his most well known asset, but it is certainly not his only one. He is one of the better outfielders in baseball and was + 11 this year in left field by the Fielding Bible. This continues with Billy Beane's trend of placing much higher value in defensive players (i.e. Mark Ellis) than the rest of the league. And though not known for his wheels, Holliday was one of the most efficient base stealers in the game last season with 28 sb and 2cs.

All of this from Matt Holliday for a year at a bargain price of $13.5 million.

The Rockies have something to look forward too with the players the brought in. Huston Street is one of the better young closers in the game. Through his first four seasons he has put up an era of 2.88 and striking out a batter per inning (271 K's in 269 ip). There are some injury concerns with him, but he has continued to put up a fair amount of innings the past few seasons. Street will definitely be an improvement to the Rockie bullpen.

Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is somewhat of an enigma. He has been one of the bigger outfield prospects in baseball since he was in the Diamondbacks organization at age 17. He put up monster numbers his first two seasons in the minors, and has yet to do much since. Carlos really struggled with the big club this year with a .242/.273/.361 line. He is only 22 years old and has all of the tools and plenty of time to improve. Gonzalez is a very good runner and could be a 30 sb a year kind of player. This also leads to above average defense. Moving to Coors will be great for Gonzalez, and although he may never live up the the expectations from when he was 17, he should still be league average at the plate and abover average in the outfield.

While the other two are going to be respectable additions to the Rockies, Greg Smith is not. How he put up a 4.16 era this season, no one knows. His stuff is incredibly...blah and his peripherals show that. Smith's K/BB was a very poor 111/87 and he gave up more than 1 hr per 9 ip. He was already due for a regression this season, but moving to Coors will make that regression much worse. Do not expect Greg Smith to last long in that rotation. Props to Oakland for dishing him when they did.

Overall this trade will help both sides. I believe it will benefit Oakland much, even if they have Holliday for just one season. Smith sucks, Street is good, but becomes a moot point with the emergence of Joey Devine and Gonzalez should be the only one missed a little. If Oakland lets Holliday go after the season, they will get 2 draft picks compensation. I doubt Beane knows if he is going to lock up Holliday or let him go, he cannot really go wrong with either move.

SWEEEET LOUUUUUUU

Piniella manager of the year!!!

Nice work. Very deserving!

Joe Maddon in the AL

Why I wish I wasn't so excited about Peavy

I'm really excited about the idea of the Cubs rotation for next year. If we get Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster, there are 4 Cy Young candidates pitching for the same team. We had that in 2004, and if it weren't for numerous injuries, maybe that would have been the year.

Well, there are serious injury concerns about Rich Harden, and growing injury concerns about one of 2004's walking wounded, Carlos Zambrano.

Is Jake Peavy really to the rescue?

The magnificent Chris O'Leary would argue no in his evaluation of Jake Peavy's mechanics.

This is a tremendous article, and a tremendous web site. I've spent hours on it myself. I think he makes a ton of sense, and gives us reason to not be disappointed if we don't get Peavy. To wit, he would end up just another brother in broken arms that the Cubs have cornered the market on.

Trade Likely This Weekend

Bruce Levine is reporting right now on espn radio, that a Peavy trade to either the Cubs or Braves is very likely by Monday. The Cubs could dish any combination of Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, Mitch Atkins, Sean Marshall. There are some reports that the Padres really want Jeff Samardzjia, who has a partial no-trade clause.

CC or Peavy!?!?!

There has been some substantial talk the last couple days about the Cubs looking to acquire high-end pitching. Specifically CC Sabathia and Jake Peavy.

This is really nice to see because all though the rotation era was very solid, I felt they (with the exception of Dempster) underperformed quite a bit this season. JC Bradbury estimates Sabathia's value at $144 million over 6 years ($24 mil per). There is a very good chance CC will push for a 7 year deal, but I would be very surprised if someone gives it to him.

The Cubs already have $122 million committed in contracts for next season. Luckily, they will not be giving a substantial amount in arbitration raises. Payroll is expected to be in $140-$150 range next season. This means Hendry will have to find a way to dish the majority of the $9.75 mil Jason Marquis is owed next season to have a shot at signing Sabathia. A signing of CC would also mean no chance Ryan Dempster is a Cub next year. The rotation would have to look something like...

CC Sabathia
Carlos Zambrano
Rich Harden
Ted Lilly
Sean Marshall

As much as many of us love Ryan Dempster (myself included) it is very likely that he would regress some, probably with an era in the high 3's. That would make this a better rotation than last year. This would also likely put Jeff Samardzjia in to a long relief/swing role. Signing CC would be awesome, but is not super likely. It is, however nice to see the Cubs making a big push to better the team even if it increases payroll.

Now for Peavy....

As of late last nigh Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports believes the Cubs are the front-runner of the Jake Peavy sweepstakes.

I have mentioned a little bit before that I do not want Jake Peavy. That is not exactly true. He is a Cy Young winner and a very very talented pitcher. I felt for the price that is going to be asked, and his chances of elbow problems, Peavy might not be worth what the Cubs give up. The Padres apparently like the Cubs young pitching. If they are talking about Carlos Marmol, I say HELL NO. I am with Pat & Ron in believing Marmol may be the most valuable player on the team. If they are talking about Samardzjia, Marshall, or Ceda then we can start talking. I like all 3 of these guys, but am by no means attatched to any of them. The Cubs should be willing to part with 2 of them. If I could pick, I would part with Ceda and Samardzjia, mainly because I believe both of them are going to be relievers, and although they should be talented one's I do not see either being Marmolesque. Marshall has tremendous value as a left-handed swing man and could be a 3 starter long-term. The rotation would could look something like...

Carlos Zambrano
Jake Peavy
Ted Lilly
Rich Harden
Jason Marquis

Rosenthal, however suggests the team is capable of take on both Peavy's and a new Dempster contract. Peavy is owed $63 mil over the next 4 seasons and Dempster is expected to get 4 yrs around $50 mil. This would also create a scenario where, Marquis contract would have to be dumped making the rotation look like..

Carlos Zambrano
Jake Peavy
Ryan Dempster
Ted Lilly
Rich Harden

That is an absolutely stacked rotation and with Sean Marshall as a swing man, Harden and Zambrano well be able to get time off when needed. Actually, with that rotation, could the Cubs do the unprecedented and go with a 6-man rotation??

Cy Young Picks

AL

This real should only be a two-man race, but thanks to some very ignorant writers who have votes, it is going to be a three-person race. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay both had outstanding seasons. To see a pitcher like Roy Halladay in an era of strict pitch counts throw 246 innings with 9 complete games is truly awesome. On top of the staggering amount of innings he put up a very competitive era of 2.78 and WHIP of 1.05. Lee was also a lot of fun to watch this year considering there was a very good chance he wasn't going to be in the rotation to start the season. He put up an outstanding record of 22-3, but the most impressive number he showed was 34 walks in over 220 innings. Lee was incredibly efficient this year. His 2.54 era also benefited from a substantial decrease in home runs allowed (12 as opposed to 17 in 97 ip last season).

Now here is where I get annoyed. K-Rod is a good closer. An above-average closer. A lot of fun to watch. K-Rod is not the best closer, reliever and certainly not the best overall pitcher in baseball. Not only that, you could make a very good argument that this was his worst season! He will get some votes strictly because he broke the saves record, and although that is cool to see, it does not make him the top pitcher in the American League. He should not be rewarded because the Angels played in a lot of close games. K-Rod blew 7 saves this year. The last time he did that was in 2004. He punched out 77 hitters this year as opposed to 90, 98, 91, 123 and 95 the past five seasons. There is only one number that stands out and that is 62. He has very little control over the amount of saves opportunities he gets in a season. That number means he will likely get much more money than he deserves on the market this off season.

Ok, no more ranting. Give me Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee any day of the week if I am starting a team, but I think Lee was just slightly better than Halladay this season.

Pick: Halladay

NL

This is actually should be a closer race than I initially thought, but not between the same two people many are expecting. It should be between Santana and Lincecum, even though many seem to think it is between Lincecum and Webb. Voters get excited over the 22 wins that Brandon Webb put up, and because of that tend to ignore his 3.30 era. That is a rock solid era, but shouldn't a Cy Young winner have one a little better than that? Tim Lincecum (2.62) and Johan Santana (2.53) did. Before I started writing this I was certain Lincecum had the lower era, but he doesn't and thats why I feel it is a really close race. Somehow Santana quietly put up a great season? This baffles me because A. It is Johan Santana and B. It is New York. He did not get off to a great start, but ended up strong. I really hope the voters don't get sucked in by the gaudy 22 wins of Webb, because he really was not the best. I would be fine with either Santana or Lincecum winning, but I am giving a slight edge to Lincecum. I feel he had a greater impact on his team than Santana did on his. Both were great though.

Pick: Tim Lincecum