Cubs Love Them Some Adam Dunn?

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Cubs would love Adam Dunn in their lineup, but are concerned about his defense.

Hendry should be a little more concerned with Dunn's defense. Playing mostly left-field throughout his career, Dunn has been one of the worst defenders in baseball. From 2006-2008, he 3rd worst defensive left-fielder in all of baseball with a -58 (cost an estimated 58 over the 3 seasons).

Ok, so Dunn is really bad in left-field. Many will tell you that left is the easiest outfield position to play, and right-field is arguably the most difficult outfield position to man. Obviously, with Soriano in left, Dunn is going to be expected to play right. Given his horrendous defensive stats in left, I see it as completely unrealistic for Dunn to play a bearable right-field. Signing him to play right-field would not help this team.

Despite what I was just saying, I actually like Adam Dunn quite a bit. Thus, I would like to see Hendry get creative and explore the option of dishing Lee for a right-fielder and looking in to have Adam Dunn play first-base. This is definitely a stretch, especially considering Lee has a no-trade clause. Nonetheless, it is something to think about.

Dunn would not be great defensively at first, but odds are the liability that his is would be minimized by having him play a less demanding position. Dunn has done nothing but rake when he plays in Wrigley Field and would be a tremendous asset to the middle of the Cub lineup.

Breaking Down the Vazquez Deal

The deal will likely not be finalized until some point today, but it appears to be pending physicals at this point. There have been some conflicting reports over the players involved, but the deal is expected to be...

Braves Acquire:

Javier Vazquez, rhp
Boone Logan

White Sox Acquire:

Brent Lillibridge, ss
Tyler Flowers, c
Jon Gilmore, 3b
Santos Rodriguez, lhp

Vazquez had a very mediocre year in 2008. With 2 years and $23 million left on his deal, ($11.5 per season) Vazquez is probably over-paid. He is not over-paid to the point where this hurts the Braves, however. As it stood before this trade, Jair Jurrjens, the 22 yr old rhp was going to be leading the staff. He showed some promise, but his peripherals indicate that his era is likely to regress next season. Jurrjens will likely not be more than a 3 starter.

Although he is past his prime, and not going to be a true ace, Vazquez is a substantial improvement to this rotation. He has thrown over 200 ip in 8 of his last 9 season, while throwing 198 in the other one. Some improvement in era can be expected with a move to the NL and a less hitter-friendly park. If Vazquez can throw 400 innings with and era around 4.50 the next two seasons, then the Braves made out well.

Boone Logan was more or less a throw in because the Braves could use a lefty in the pen. Despite a poor 2008 campaign, Logan should rebound some due to the solid 3/1 K/BB rate.

Now for the prospects going the Sox way...

Tyler Flowers- Currently a very offensive-minded catcher, who put up very solid numbers at the plate this past season. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked him 8th on his Atlanta top 11 prospect list. He is too big and just not talented enough to stay behind the plate. With that said, moving to the AL will be good for his career, as he could end up being a DH. I see his bat making him and above-average regular, but do not expect him in the bigs until mid-2010.

Brent Lillibridge- I have been a pretty big fan of his the past two years. His 2008 campaign was not impressive, but it is not time to give up on him. Baseball America ranked him #6 on the Braves top 10 prospect list last year. He is capable of being a lead-off hitter that hits .280-.300 with a solid obp. Lillibridge is also a pretty solid ss (which is moot with the cuban missile taking that spot) and capable of stealing 40+ bases per season. He does need to work on hitting for more contact instead of power. If Lillibridge figures that out, he should be a nice complimentary player.

Jon Gilmore- Scouting reports on Gilmore were that he has a lot of power potential, but thus far has not lived up to expectations. He did however, hit for an impressive .337 avg in the Appalachian league this season. Some potential, but a long way to go. I am bearish on him.

Santos Rodriguez- A left-handed closer, with a very projectable frame (6'5", 180 lbs.). As he puts on some weight, expect Rodriguez currently 93 mph fastball to reach the mid 90's. Santos is probably 3+ years away, but his a lot of potential out of the pen.

I see this as a win win trade. The Braves probably over-paid for Vazquez, but getting another consistent arm was necessary to take pressure off the young Jurrjens. The White Sox shed some salary, and made some nice improvements to a borderline pathetic farm-system. Most of the talent is 2 years away, with Lillibridge being just about major-league ready, but this should help them long term.

Cubs Top 20 Prospects

John Sickels of Minor League ball put up his preliminary rankings for the Cubs top 20 prospects on his site. You can see what the comments he made for each player and the system as a whole here. The top 20 looks like this....

1) Josh Vitters, 3B

2) Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3) Ryan Flaherty, SS

4) Andrew Cashner, RHP

5) Hak-Ju Lee, SS

6) Jay Jackson, RHP,

7) Tyler Colvin, OF

8) Welington Castillo, C

9) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

10) Aaron Shafer, RHP

11) Starlin Castro, SS

12) Junior Lake, SS.

13) Dan McDaniel, RHP

14) Micah Hoffpauir

15) Esmailin Caridad, RHP

16) Don Veal, LHP

17) Josh Kroeger, OF

18) Tony Thomas, 2B

19) Chris Carpenter, RHP

20) Mitch Atkins, RHP

Vitters was the no. 3 overall pick in the 2007 draft, and I am a big fan. Reminds me a lot of Aramis Ramirez in the sense that he is a contact hitter with above-average power. Not great plate discipline, but decent enough and will not strike out a ton. I would have put Flaherty lower. Word is that he will not be able to stick at ss, and although he has a decent bat, it does not project as much above-average at a corner position. Cashner was the Cubs first pick in this years draft, which is frustrating because I hate the idea of drafting relievers with your first couple picks. Why draft them when so many relievers are guys who just were not capable of starting, or like Carlos Marmol who would not make it as a catcher, but he had an electric arm, so they put him on the mound. With all that said, Cashner could be a very good reliever with an above-average fastball and a nasty slider.

The Cubs have made quite a few signings from the Pacific Rim the past few seasons. Hak-Ju-Lee and Dae-Eun-Rhee are the two biggest names right now. Lee seemed to be ranked pretty high considering he has not played in the minors at all. The report on him is that he is outstanding defensively at ss, and a strong contact hitter. Definitely a name to keep an eye on next year. Rhee was flashing 3 above-average pitches in the MWL this year before he had to get Tommy John surgery. He is expected to be back in June or July next season and has a lot of upside.

Colvin was the Cubs first pick in the 2006 draft, and the first one by the new scouting director, Tim Wilken. I have hated this pick from day 1, and unfortunately Colvin has proved me right. He hit .256/.312/.424 this season in AA Tennessee. I would have put him lower than 7.

It was nice to see Sickels put Jay Jackson pretty high. He had a great debut, putting up a nearly 6/1 K/BB rate. Jackson has a solid fastball and a very good curveball, and most importantly, good command of both of those pitches. He is another name to keep an eye on next year.

Overall, the Cubs system is very weak right now. Tim Wilken and Oneri Fleita (Director of player development) appear to be largely at fault for that. The only 1st round pick that I liked was Josh Vitters, and the other two have been struggling quite a bit. Then There are guys like Donald Veal, and Mark Pawelek who looked like great picks in the 2005 draft. Both lefties with very high ceilings, Pawelek the 1st round pick, and Veal the 2nd round pick. Their skills have only digressed since they have been in the Cubs system and people like Fleita should be taking some blame there.

There are some positives in the system, unfortunately most of it is in the lower minors and need some time to develop. Vitters, Rhee, Lee and Jackson are the 4 names to keep a good eye on next season. Castillo and Shafer have some solid potential as well.

Deadline Day

Today is the last day for the Cubs to offer arbitration to Bob Howry or Kerry Wood. They have until 11 pm CDT to do so.

Howry and Wood are both Type A free agents, which means that if the Cubs offer arbitration to them and they decline and sign with another team, then the Cubs will receive a compensation pick in the 2009 draft. If the team that signs him picks anywhere between 1-15, the Cubs would get a pick at the end of the first round. If the team that signs them picks between 16-30, the Cubs would receive their first round pick.

Reports say the Cubs will not be offering arbitration to Bob Howry, which makes sense considering Howry would be likely to accept. As much as I would like that compensation pick, I really do not want to see Howry in a Cub uniform any longer.

That same article said the Cubs are only going to offer arbitration to Wood if he is likely to decline.

I would like to see Wood offered arbitration. If he accepts, then you have another valuable reliever in your possession for another year, and if he declines you get a compensation pick in the draft. This seems like a no-brainer to me, but Hendry has already said the team is parting ways with Wood.

Would he accept arbitration? I really do not have a great idea, but put a gun to my head and I say yes, mainly because of the comments from Wood saying he would have taken a 1 year deal to stay with the team.

White Sox Sign Dayan Viciedo

Kenny Williams has been working hard to get this deal done and it was finally completed a few days ago. Viciedo,19, is a Cuban defector who has incredible power potential. Some scouts say he should be able to hit 40 hr's per year. Unlike Alexei Ramirez, Viciedo is not likely major-league ready. He is only 19 and will likely get a years worth of seasoning in the minors. Expect him to start in AA Birmingham and not be a contributor to the big club until mid-2010.

Some appear to see him on a faster track than that, and although odds are very slim that he ends up on the opening day roster, he could be contributing by June. It really is too early to tell though, considering he has not played one inning in the states. Had the deal been completed sooner, we would have gotten to see Viciedo play in the Arizona Fall League. Since that did not happen, he will need to make a very profound impression on Ozzie Guillen in spring training.

Ramirez and Viciedo are very different players, but are likely to man the left side of the infield for the White Sox for years to come. Viciedo is a power hitter first. Baseball America compared him to Giants first-base prospect Angel Villalona, who has incredible raw power (but yet to do much in the minors). The article points out that he has to improve his defense at third-base and will have to move over to first-base soon if he does not improve there.

The signing of the Cuban Missile (Alexei Ramirez) was outstanding last year. It was virtually a no risk move considering they are paying him $4.75 million over 4 years. Viciedo did not come at that price. He signed for somewhere between $10-11 million over the next 4 seasons. I really do not like to see an unproven 19 year old signing for that kind of money. The White Sox certainly over-payed for him, and I would not to cough up that kind of money when a comparable prospect Angel Villalona received a signing bonus of $2.1 million.

Kenny Williams remains a complete enigma to me. It is nice to see him looking towards young players with high upside as opposed to trading for Carl Everrett for the 3rd time. I will be keeping a close eye on Viciedo this upcoming season.

Latest on Cuban, Ownership, Dempster and the Incompetence of Christ DeLuca

Many of you have heard by now that Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and bidding for ownership of the Cubs, is being investigated by the SEC for and insider trading incident that took place 4 years ago. This is just a civil suit, so Cuban will not face any jail time, just financial penalties. Does this hurt his chance at being Cubs owner? Probably, a little bit. The certainly hurts the reputation of a man who never had a great one in the first place. Major League Baseball and its owners will not want to get involved with someone who is currently being investigated.

A week before the insider trading situation became public knowledge, Chris DeLuca of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote an article explaining why there was no chance that Cuban would be the next owner of the Cubs.

"Global financial crisis or not, baseball's old guard plans to stand firm against letting Cuban into the club. ''There's no way Bud and the owners are going to let that happen,'' a Major League Baseball source said this week. ''Zero chance.''

That might make some sense if there was any actual new information presented. There was nothing new in this article suggesting that Cuban cannot be owner of the team. Assuming the previously stated information was true, than fan-favorite Mavericks owner never would have had a shot at buying this team in the first place. On top of this DeLuca suggests John Canning is the favorite to buy the team...

"All of this likely will put the group headed by John Canning Jr. -- Selig's personal favorite -- back as the front-runner."

Forget the fact Canning was eliminated from the bidding after his initial bid did not reach the minimum of $1 billion. Call me crazy, but I do not see how a guy who has already been eliminated from bidding being the front-runner.

There is probably some way Canning could get back in to the bidding, but calling him the front-runner is ridiculous.

I still have a difficult time believing Cuban will not be the owner if he impresses the owners with an offer. Cuban was reportedly the highest bidder at $1.3 billion. Accepting Cuban as the highest bidder improves the value of the other 29 teams. If I were to make a prediction i would say the Ricketts family is the front-runner.

I am not done with Chris DeLuca....

DeLuca had a Cy Young vote and was the only person to not put Tim Lincecum on the ballot. Really Chris? Are you too dumb to realize that Lincecum was not one of the top 3 pitchers in the NL this year?

"It's funny because toward the end of the season, in early September, I was thinking Lincecum would be in my top two," De Luca said. "I thought Webb's victories (22) stood out to me more than anything, and Lincecum didn't have the victories. Twenty victories was a big deal. We had a stretch there where no one was hitting 20."

Well I suppose I cannot argue with that logic, except for the fact that wins mean next to nothing when determining the quality of a pitcher! Webb is a good pitcher who had a good season, but Lincecum was sooo much more dominant and everyone but you realized he was at worst the #3 pitcher in the NL. Ok, DeLuca rant over....

On to Dempster....I wanted to make a correction on the contract. It is not a straight up 4 year deal. It is 3 years with a player option for $14 million for a 4th. He gets a $4 mil signing bonus and will make $8, $12.5, and $13.5 million over the next three seasons.

There is little to no chance that he would turn down $14 million at age 35, but I maintain this was still the right move for the Cubs. He certainly did not come cheap, but they did not really over pay for him either.

Dempster is Back

Its official. There was a lot of talk this morning a deal was close. The deal is 4 yrs $52 million. This is a very solid deal for the Cubs. Early on, some were saying Demp was expecting a 5 year deal, which would be nuts. Ideally this was only a 3 year deal, but in this day in age, that is fairly unrealistic.

He may never put up a sub-3 era again, but if Dempster puts up 4 years with 180-200 ip and an era in the 3.5 or a little higher range, this was a very good deal.

But...But...He's Like 80

There has been some talk beginning last Friday on the possibility of Randy Johnson becoming a Cub. My initial reaction was the title of this post. After thinking about it a little more, I must say, it does not seem like a bad idea.

Johnson, 45 (not 80), has put up insane numbers against the Cubs throughout his career. He is 13-0 in 14 starts with some ridiculous era. Its fair to say adding him adds 1 win to the team simply because they do not have to face him. Although he is getting old and having some arm problems, Johnson still threw over 180 innings last year with a sub 4 era. Assuming the Cubs re-sign Dempster that leaves the Cubs with a rotation of...

Zambrano
Dempster
Harden
Lilly
Marquis
Johnson

Ok, thats 6, which means Marquis must go. The argument of keeping Marquis around because you cannot count on Johnson and even Harden is a fair one, but Marshall will be around and makes for a better and cheaper fill in than Marquis.

I do not like the idea of Randy Johnson being the guy the Cubs turn to in the slight chance that Dempster goes elsewhere. That is when the Cubs continue pursuit of Jake Peavy. If Johnson is acquired to add another arm from the left side and not expected to make 35 starts then I am all in.

Right Field Situation

It is clear at this point that Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome are going to be platooned in center-field. This leaves an open spot in right. Who should they get?

Right-handed hitters need not apply

Brian Giles- I get incredibly excited thinking this is even a possibility. Giles, despite being 37 opening day next season, would still be a tremendous asset to the Cubs lineup and outfield. He hit .306/.398/.456 last season. That is in .854 OPS in a park that suppresses runs by20%. It would be no surprise to see those numbers increase in a hitter friendly Wrigley Field. On top of the very impressive offensive numbers, Giles was rated the #2 right-fielder in all of baseball this year with a +20 rating according to the Fielding Bible. Giles is only making $9 million this year, and his production is deserving about $17-18 mil. Hendry should not hang up his phone with Towers until he has a deal. The problem is that the Padres are not complete bafoons and are aware of Giles value, thus making it very difficult to happen.

Jeremy Hermida- This is a more realistic option, which is surprising considering he is 25 and still has all-star upside. Hermida has been hampered with nagging injuries throughout his short career. In 2007 he put up a .296/.369/.501 line. Very solid for a 23 year old hitter. Hermida struggled a bit this past season, but his health is improving as he reached a career high in AB's with 502. I would be willing to bet he bounces back and puts up numbers closer to those he put up in 2007 and that made him the #4 prospect in baseball not even 3 years ago. The Marlins are listening to offers for Hermida and the Cubs and Rays are listed as the two suitors. Unfortunately, the Rays have more to offer from their deep farm system. The Cubs still have a very good shot at getting Hermida and I would really like to see him in a Cub uniform next year.
Bobby Abreu- There does not appear to be much interest on the Cubs end here, but Abreu could be a good fit. He continues to put up solid numbers as he hit .296/.371/.471 this past season. Abreu also brings some speed on the base paths. Word is that Abreu wants to re-sign with the Yankees, but also wants a 3 year deal. If the Yanks do not lock him up, it would make a lot of sense for the Cubs to go after him

Raul Ibanez- Unlike the first three names, the next two I really do not want, but there has been some talk about them. Hendry seems to be a big fan of Ibanez, as he has been talked about as an option for the Cubs the past few off seasons. Ibanez is somewhat of an enigma to me. I though he was 35 for the past 10 years (don't ask). He has put up pretty solid numbers throughout his career with a .286/.346/.479 line. His numbers the past 3 seasons have actually been a little above his career averages. My issue is that Ibanez is going to turn 37 during the 2009 season and is over-due for a regression in the stat line. This would not be awful if Ibanez provided some defensive value, but he does not. Fielding Bible ranked him as the 2nd worst defensive left-fielder in baseball. It is no secret that right-field is a more difficult position to field than left, and he would be a tremendous liability out there. Please Hendry, do not do this!

Brian Roberts- I am aware Roberts is not an outfielder, but rather a second-baseman. Acquiring Roberts would likely mean Derosa moves to right-field. If we hear nothing but Roberts rumors this off season I will be furious. Like last year, I still think this is a redundant move. Derosa is very solid with the bat and just put up a career year. Although he is versatile in the field, Derosa cannot play right-field every day. He is fine as a fill in, but would hurt the team defensively if he is trotting out to right-field every day.

questions? comments? concerns?

Gregg In Wood Out

The Cubs made a move in attempt to better the bullpen. This seems like a very odd trade and definitely not something any of us saw coming. Kevin Gregg spent the last two seasons as the Florida Marlins closer, saving a total of 61 games throughout that time. Despite the respectable 3.41 era this past season, Gregg struggled. He had a few nagging injuries and had surgery on his knee not too long ago. His walk rate is very alarming, and has only gone up the last two seasons. Gregg needs to get the walks under control, if he can keep the walk rate between 3.5 and 4 per 9 ip, he should be an asset to this bullpen.

In exchange for Gregg, the Cubs gave up Jose Ceda, 21, one of the better prospects in a very thin Cubs minor league system. I am a pretty big fan of Ceda. He has tremendous upside as a reliever, with a fastball that sits in the 96+ range and a slider that ranks as a 65 on the 20-80 scout scale. He has the potential to be Carlos Marmol good as a closer in a couple years. With that said, there is an IF there. Ceda is pretty good and has a lot of upside, but is not ready to contribute April 1, 2009, thus making him expendable.

The biggest news coming from this trade has nothing to do with the two players actually traded. Kerry Wood is not going to be in a Cub next season. As soon as the trade broke, many were saying this meant Wood was not going to be back. I did not believe it, feeling Gregg was acquired to replace the useless Bob Howry. It turns out I was wrong as Jim Hendry explained the situation during a conference call.

"We felt it was time Kerry goes out and does what is best for him and his family and get a huge multiyear deal, if possible," Hendry said. "This is really the right thing to do. We’ve had some really honest conversations in the last week. We don’t have to get into how much I think of him, but at the same time I don’t think we could do for him right now what he deserves and what I think he’ll get going elsewhere."

The positive coming from this is that the Cubs will likely save around $6 million next season. Expect that money to go towards Ryan Dempster and/or a left-handed hitter of some kind.

This really is a sad day for Cub fans. Kerry Wood may never have lived up to the expectations people had for him after the incredible 20 strikeout performance ten years ago, but he was loyal to this organization for 14 professional seasons. Last year, he came back for a 1 year deal when he could have gotten more money on the open market. Kerry Wood is a true class act and I will certainly miss watching him (and his gorgeous wife) in a Cub uniform. He deserves nothing but the best and thats exactly what I wish him on his future endeavors.